Hi Joe I come here to read long winding posts relating to the election. You couldn't keep these short off topic posts for the the general news thread could ye?
I'm in the Dun Laoghaire constituency for the first time myself, any preferences for candidates you'd like to share? I'm not attached to anyone 100% yet
It probably matters less, once your past your 8th preference, but I complete all of them, to be sure that my vote will never go towards helping someone who I would not want to see get the benefit of it. I'm in a 5 seat constituency, with two of the outgoing TDs not standing for reelection and a rake of newbies competiting for their seats, so I'm expecting it to need more that your first 8, to see all seats filled.
No matter what happens, I really hope that we've a high turnout - as best we can, let's hope the outcome is representative of what everyone in Ireland wants.
Labour are expected to get 7 seats max ( more likely 5) Polls say FF looking at 50 plus seats. That would be a massive win for them and enough to form a government with labour greens and 1/2 indys. Be more of the same.
I think the social democrats will have a good day. Theres a big push to vote left all the way down the ballot which will probably see them do well with transfers. They'll be my no.2. Most of the poll based predictions I've seen would have a FF/Green/Labour coalition still needing 10 seats or more so going to the Soc Dems might make more sense to FF than trying to recruit 10 or more independents. It pisses me off that Labour will be in the mix to go back into government. They're the ultimate "these are our principles,and if you don't like them we have others" party.
FF really need to get 60+ if we've any hope of a government being formed unless we're going back to the FF & FG coalition again. Martin as the next Toaiseach would have seemed unimaginable 10 years ago but here we are now with no other option, it's just a matter of who he needs to form his Govt. I like the social Democrats Mick, they seem a very honest bunch, Katherine Murphy has been doing great work for a long time, I think they'd stand by their principles. Eamon Ryan has already said that he'd be meeting with Labour and SD's before talking to any other party so they're obviously ready to band together to form a Government but if they go in as a block it would give them a very powerful voice with close to 20 seats.
Never easy to say but 60+ seats seems a big ask for a party polling at 23%. But maybe Micheal will "put the country first" like he did the last time and invite Sinn Fein to form a coalition I heard a rumour(which obviously means it could be bullshit but the logic makes sense to me)that certain FF candidates think there needs to be a heave against Micheal Martin if he tries to get back into bed with FG. The reasoning being that they're sure it would lead to another surge in support for Sinn Fein. They reckon the best way to put the brakes on the growth in their support is to make them the junior coalition partner as that's who normally who the electorate punish the most when the next election comes around.
I thought people at polling station where not meant to influence. FF and SF both St the gates of entrance.. needless to say after that neither got my vote..
I don't believe that's allowed at all but it's a very pretty reason to change a decision on the next 5 years for the country unless you were already not terribly sold on either.