This was my original choice for the bumper. Very impressed with his win a few weeks ago. Another preview though that I read a few 'experts' said he has no chance and should be 100/1. - decisions decisions
his is a bonus preview report in addition to the ten we will cover as Ferdy Murphy (FM) and Denis O’Regan (DO’R), who were down for the Doncaster preview but could not attend, were appearing here so we wanted to include their views. Also appearing were to myself Paul Jones (PJ), Iain Turner (IT) of WBX.com and local racing journalist John Budden (JB). Denis O’Regan was riding in the last race at Newcastle so missed the start and joined the panel mid-way through the first day analysis. I’ve attended this preview for all five years and this was the best to date and the biggest audience so far, the biggest in the north I would say. SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE FM: I’ve never seen a novice quicken like Dunguib when his rider changed his hands since Golden Cygnet and the mistakes he made early on were because he was put to sleep. If you have that kind of class, it is very hard to get beaten on good ground. PJ: History has taught me you don’t win in the long run backing odds-on shots at the Festival and I like the two Mullins horses e/w or betting without Dunguib namely Flat Out and Blackatairmountain with the former the better value. I do like lightly-raced novices for this race and both won their only hurdling start. IT: Get Me Out Of Here looks the best alternative to Dunguib so back him with Paddy Power who will refund stakes if the favourite wins. JB: Dunguib is too short so take him on with both Get Me Out Of Here and Blackstairmountain. ARKLE TROPHY FM: We run I’m Delilah and she has a sporting each-way chance if she gets into an early rhythm. Captain Cee Bee will not get away with his mistakes here and Sizing Europe is a poor traveller and he wrecked the box on his way to Naas. PJ: Sports Line is my idea of the best bet and hopefully they can rein his enthusiasm in a little. I see him improving greatly on his second in the Irish Arkle which is usually their best guide. I have time for Somersby but am worried he has been off for so long and think Sizing Europe is a better horse than Captain Cee Bee but I have Riverside Theatre down as a flat track horse. IT: I hear McCoy can not split Captain Cee Bee and Somersby bur he is contracted to ride for the owner of Captain Cee Bee. However, I feel the Brits have the edge and fancy Somersby to beat Riverside Theatre. JB: Captain Cee Bee is too short so I am a Somersby man whose Supreme form from last season is working out great and he is a super jumper. CHAMPION HURDLE FM: Go Native is the class act of the race and I really hope he can the £1million bonus. DO’R: It looks like I will be on standby as don’t have a ride but Muirhead is a possibility for me. Having worked at Noel Meade’s a few years back I really hope Go Native can win for them and Carberry who was centimetres away on Harchibald from the greatest ride in Festival history. PJ: Punjabi each-way is my idea of the best bet. He may not have beaten much last time but he had his swagger back and a fast-run 2m at Cheltenham is perfect for him. Celestial Halo is becoming the forgotten horse and unlike last year he could get the run of the race from the front so I have time for his chance as I do Medermit. Go Native has his chance but 31/ looks on the short side. IT: Last season’s race is just not working out at all. The rumours last week that all was not well with Solwhit. Carberry rode Go Native in work this week for the first time in ages and could not have been happier and it will be fantastic if they can land our £1million bonus. Punjabi rates as the main danger. JB: Medemit for me. He beat Punjabi convincingly at Haydock and there is little between him and Go Native on Supreme form but he is twice the price. TUESDAY SHOULDER RACES FM: Graham Lee will ride Calgary Bay in the William Hill Trophy so he doesn’t go for the Gold Cup. I used to run horses and win the cross country races but there is no point now as J P McManus sends expensive horses to these races and they outclass everything so what is the point? DO’R: I make Quevega my banker of the meeting in the Mares Hurdle PJ: I think its between the novices at the front of the market in the William Hill Trophy namely The Package and Bensalem, reckon Quevega will outstay Voler La Vedette if Ruby kicks on early enough and Sizing Australia is the each-way play in the cross country. IT: I’ve heard that David Johnson rates The Package as his best chance of a winner at the Festival in the William Hill Trophy and Carberry has been booked for Character Building who should sui him ideally but a late injury meant they missed the Grand National last season so will they want to risk leaving Aintree behind here? JB: Alan King had a good season last year but a poor Festival. This time he has had a poor season but I can see him having a good Festival. If Bensalem jumps well he is handicapped to win the William Hill Trophy. Character Building loves good ground and will be fit as he has a bad foot so has to be fit when he runs. NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE FM: I have to be against Rite Of Passage given Dermot Weld’s record at the Festival so I will go with Finians Rainbow. DO’R: I know Barry Geraghty is really looking forward to Finians Rianbow who he thinks is his best ride of the meeting which is saying something the book he has. PJ: I think Rite Of Passage will be well backed and have too much speed for the NH-breds with ground looking as if it is not going to be testing. IT: Finians Rainbow is the value. Peddlers Cross should be in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. JB: The Challow Hurdle is working out well so I respect the winner Reve De Sivola but feel Finians Rainbow can reverse placings with him on the better ground. RSA CHASE FM: They go near enough Gold Cup pace so jumping is crucial. The Nightingale is one of the nicest horse I’ve seen for a while and like him if he runs. If a top jockey was on Long Run then you be confident as he looked special at Kempton. DO’R I thought Long Run was a future Gold Cup winner when I saw him at Kempton. It takes a special horse to win at 3m and then drop down and win at 2m. PJ: Punchestowns, Diamond Harry, Uimhiraceathair and The Nightingale have only run twice over fences which concerns me as experience allied to toughness counts in the race which is why I like Weapon’s Amnesty to run a big race back up to 3m and back on a decent racing surface. IT: prefer Punchestowns to Long Run. Henderson thinks he may now beat Big Buck’s if he took him on again over hurdles as they know more about each horse. JB: If Punchestowns runs he looks value following his drift. Knockara Beau is the best each-way shot. Forget his Reynoldstown run where he jumped left throughout as he slipped into the second fence and hurt his back which has been treated since. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE FM: Kalahari King schooled over four fences this morning and everything is going well with his preparation. The plan was the Peterborough Chase but he had a slight setback and we were never going to run him on testing ground in the middle of winter. We wouldn’t want any more watering but understand why it is necessary for safety reasons. DO’R: Master Minded was seriously impressive at Newbury and maybe I’m reading too much into it but I still felt he was hanging slightly. Twist Magic has been trained differently this season and I don’t believe the rubbish he doesn’t handle Cheltenham so he can go very well. PJ: Master Minded to win easily with Kalahari King’s running style being ideally suited to run through beaten horses for second. Kalahari King without Master Minded at 5/2 for me. JB: Kalahari King won in such a stylish manner at Doncaster I would take a chance with him to beat Master Minded who still has some questions to answer. WEDNESDAY SHOULDER RACES FM: Poker De Sivola goes for the NH Chase. I like Bothy for the Fred Winter as he is a right tough little horse and have heard Walsh feels that Al Ferof has a big future so he could be the one for the Bumper. DO’R: I’ve a great chance on On Raglan Road in the Coral Cup who is one of my best rides at the meeting and can see Presenting Forever for well in the NH Chase. PJ: I like Saddlers Storm for the NH Chase, Day In a Lifetime is the only bumper this season I’ve been really impressed with and reckon Quantitattiveeasing is handicapped to win the Coral Cup if they head down that route. IT: Quantitativeeasing catches the eye off 139 in the Coral Cup, Gilded Age could be the one for the Fred Winter on better ground and if Olofi goes for the Fred Winter also look at him as Tom George and Sam Thomas think he would have a chance of winning of the Triumph. JB: Pettifour for the NH Chase, Bothy for the Fred Winter and Drumbaloo in the Bumper. RYANAIR CHASE FM: Petit Robin will appreciate the step up in trip so is my selection with Tranquil Sea as the danger. DO’R: I think Schindlers Hunt is great each-way value. He was not beaten in this race last year of the Melling Chase and Voy Por Ustedes has regressed since then. PJ: Scotsirish is overpriced at 25/1 but Cheltenham form is the key and I find it hard to split Poquelin and Tranquil Sea. I just feel Barbers Shop is and always will be a nearly horse. IT: Barbers Shop is ideal for this race and better value than Poquelin who would be double the price if not trained by Nicholls. JB: Barbers Shop appeals back to 2m5f. I can’t see a weakness in Tranquil Sea and he looks the most reliable horse in a tricky race. WORLD HURDLE FM: Big Buck’s is quirky but Ruby rides him so well but Baracouda was a similar type beaten twice as a hot favourite in this race. If anything finds him out it will probably be Tidal bay. DO’R: The key to Big Buck’s is Ruby as he gets a great tune out of him and the horse likes a target. I ride Tidal Bay who will love decent ground and think we have a chance. Barry said he made a mistake in last year’s race on Punchestowns as he kicked on when he saw Ruby rowing along but now wishes he had held onto him. PJ: Very hard to see beyond Big Buck’s so prefer to bet in a market without the favourite where Time For Rupert makes plenty of appeal at 10/1 as he is progressing with each run and I feel he could reverse placings with Tidal Bay given that fact and racing off level weights this time. IT: Sentry Duty could run into a place if there is a big battle up front. JB: Tidal Bay is a spring horse and he can give Big Buck’s one heck of a race. THURSDAY SHOULDER RACES FM: Watch My Back goes for the Byrne Group Plate and I would say he is my best chance of the week on his run behind Poquelin back in December. The Hollinwell goes for the Jewson and is not the finished article and is on a high enough mark and I am not 100% sure Cheltenham will suit. All that said, if he takes to the course he has a decent chance as he is a horse with a future. Nina Carberry Galant Nuit in the Kim Muir but 11st 5lbs is more than I would like. He handles any but soft would be best as he handles it better than most. Elzahann goes for the Pertemps Final and is a spring horse that wants the sun on her back. She would have a good chance on good ground. D’OR: Door Boy is a great ride for me in the Jewson and he has been trained for this. He jumps great and is well handicapped. I fancy Abbeybraney for the Grand National and we struggled to beat The Hollinwell so I rate him my main danger. PJ: Silk Affair looks to have been plotted up for the Pertemps Final as does Song Of Songs for the Plate and Sunnyhillboy for the Jewson though I just prefer Rivaliste for that race. Shillingstone is my idea of the Kim Muir winner. IT: J P McManus can win the Jewson with either Sunnyhillboy or Jered. JB: The Hollinwell ahs to go well in the Jewson, Fredo for the Pertemps Final, Galant Nuit for the Kim Muir and Watch My Back for the Plate. TRIUMPH HURDLE FM: I think Carlito Brigante is a gorgeous horse, maybe too big for a 4yo but I don’t know a lot about the race so will go with him. DO’R: Advisor looked very professional at Ascot and I will be surprised if he is not in the frame. PJ: I was big on Mille Chief so have had to have a rethink. Secant Star at a push but this race is really disappointing. IT: Alaivan is a small horse that looks like he may need soft ground so is not great value. If Olofi runs here don’t write him off and better ground will suit. JB: I am keep being told Alaivan with reverse Leopardstown running with Carlito Brigante but I am not sure and think Gordon Elliott’s horse can prevail. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE FM: Enterprise Park has been laid out for this and I hear he did a very good piece of work at Thurles last week. DO’R I ride The Knoxs feel he can go well at a big price. Tell Massini is the one to beat and I know Sam Thomas is very sweet on him. PJ: I am confident I have nailed this down to two class horses in Enterprise Park and Tell Massini but just prefer the latter at the prices and, looking at his action, I feel he will improve for better ground whose last time out win has been franked by the second and third. IT: Enterprise Park has been very well backed in the last week. The Betchworth Kid ran well over too short a trip last time and should be backed each-way. GOLD CUP FM: Kauto Star will win as Denman has ‘gone’. McCoy couldn’t get a tune out of him so reckon there must be something radically wrong. Cooldine is his main danger. DO’R: Very soft ground brings Denman into this but I rode in the King George and I’ve never seen a horse like Kauto Star. Cooldine is the each-way horse. PJ: Kauto Star all the way with Cooldine more of a threat than Denman as he doesn’t know when to lay down and has been trained to peak slowly for this race. IT: Lay Denman win and place. FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES FM: Naiad Du Misselot goes for the Martin Pipe. He should just creep in and I am pleased with him. Beggars Cap travelled well in the Grand Annual last year until falling. He is a few pounds higher but has a chance on decent ground. DO’R: Caravel goes for the Imperial Cup and then we will see about the County or Martin Pipe. Arcalis goes for the County and finished like a train to just miss out on fourth last year. Lennon goes for the Grand Annual but his main aim is the Topham at Aintree. PJ: Trust Fund ew is a knocking bet in the Foxhunters’, if Quantitativeeasing goes for the Martin Pipe then he would interest me most, I backed Arcalis e/w in the County last season and don’t think he is out of it again on good ground despite his age. IT: Just follow J P McManus in the County Hurdle. Trust Fund for the Foxhunters’ and maybe Ashkazar for the Martin Pipe. He may have ‘gone’ but still could be worth taking a chance on. JB: Sericena for the Foxhunters’, Palomar for the County or Martin Pipe and Dave’s Dream will appreciate better ground in the Grand Annual.
Cheers for the previews so far. Every year the buzz around Cheltenham seems to get bigger and bigger. Backed out of heading as flights got too dear. Still have the two days off next Thursday and Friday though. Three days with two boxes of Miller in the gaff. Going to be sweet unless I lose me bolix!!!
Yeah I will be able enjoy 3 days off to watch, Normally off Tuesday, Paddy's day on wed and booked friday off. Should be good cant wait
Have Tuesday off and flying into Bristol Friday morning for The Gold Cup. Back from Bristol on the Saturday morning. Hopefully I'll have some ammunition left by the Friday.
I'm going to this next year screw it! Backed Go Native as if Solwhit does pull out his price will drop even further, plus with most going guaranteed you've not much to lose on it! If you want to oppose Dunguib, I'd like Blackstairsmountain too, I'd agree Dunguib probably will be evens at some stage to tempt people in, sportingbet are 10/11 stand out price now. Did a Long Run/MM double for wednsday, very annoyed missed the bigger prices on Long Run, he is a beast, hope he doesn't disappoint. Also on Kauto, just hope don't over water the track. Big Bucks seems to have the love all around, and there really isnt much in the race at all, quite poor really. And I'm going away on Thursday and all!!
Yeah I likied him too but that other preview siad to avoid him so crossed him off my list. Think ill leave him off my list, have enough to be abcking. The thing about cheltenham is you get about 6 tips for each bloody race. Im gonna have a good punt on Binocular at 8/1 though, think its a great price
Yes everyone seems to fancy Long Run but that is a tough tough fooking race, the RSA so i think his odds are too short to back him.
after what Barry Geraghty said about Punchestowns, i am not backing Long Run..... And the jockey booking doesn't help either, Sam Whaley-Cohen? the pressure might get to him, obviously his dad owns the horse and would love to see his son ride him a winner at Cheltenham. I think their dream might fall to pieces.
Always a fun night, probably the best on the circuit with the maximum capacity of 300 seats all filled which also had an added twist this year. You knew it was going to be one of those nights when a Jethro impersonator introduced the panel. Said panel comprised of M.C. Robert Cooper whose dry wit worked perfectly in tandem with panellists headed by Paddy Brennan (PB) who has a strong book of rides next week, Raceform, GG.Com journalist and multiple Scoop6 winner Andrew Mount (AM) who was dressed for the occasion in countryman gentlemen attire, the inimitable Mark Winstanley (MW) who was also dressed for the occasion in a Green Bay Packers puffa jacket and shellsuit tracksuit bottoms and the belly from the telly Gary Wiltshire (GW) who kept us up to speed with the market moves but didn’t contribute to all races. Timeform’s Kieran Packman had been struck down with flu so was a non-runner so rather than leave a void, innovative chaps that they are, Towcester’s team plucked an audience member from obscurity to appear as his replacement after asking for a show of hands who wanted to take his place. Gavin Gibson was his name or Betting Shop Man (BSM) as we are going to call him, and he wasn’t short on a controversial opinion it is fair to say! He certainly divided the audience whether the bold move to have him on or not but he wasn’t a mug, he knew his stuff. He appeared on the panel so his views are also listed. SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE PB: Dunguib is my banker of the Festival and I am very happy he is not taking me on in the Champion Hurdle where I ride Khyber Kim. He’s a certainty and will love the better ground being by Presenting. I honestly think he could win by 20 lengths. MW: All the Irish are backing Dunguib, even Father Ted has returned to back him. However the other jocks know he is the one to beat and has an inexperienced rider so they won’t be making it easy for him so he is a lay at 4/6. It was the same story for Cousin Vinny last year. Blackstairmountain is a bit of value against him but the lay is the bet of the race. AM: I don’t think we should be worried about Dunguib’s jumping as his mistakes were in small fields and on testing ground. I wouldn’t back him at Evens but I wouldn’t want to lay him either. GW: I really don’t think Dunguib will start odds-on as he is already around Evens on Betfair and that dictates the on-course market. The word is he also finished with sore shins last time. I would lay him and the bookies will want to lay him. BSM: I can’t have Menorah or Oscar Whisky and Dunguib is too short so a small each-way bet on Get Me Out Of Here is the call. ARKLE TROPHY PB: Henrietta Knight wraps her horses up a little but she can certainly train them for the day that matters and I like Somersby most. I don’t think Riverside Theatre is good enough to win as I rode against him last time and although he won well in the end, Barry was shaking at him earlier. MW: I want to take on Captain Cee Bee whose jumping isn’t good enough and is a nine-year-old. I’ve backed Sports Line and Riverside Theatre. Mullins’ horses worked at Gowran a couple of days ago and I asked which worked best and was told it was Sports Line. AM: Sports Line probably paid for getting in a battle last time but the one I like is Somersby and I am not worried about his longish absence coming from this yard. GW: I did fancy Long Run but he goes for the RSA Chase. BSM: I like Captain Cee Bee. I know good judges think he is underpriced but he gave Binocular 8lbs and a beating in the Supreme. The one horse I can’t have is Somersby who has won just two four-runner races and I don’t like the way she has trained it. Best Mate must have been a wonder horse for her to train him to win three Gold Cups! CHAMPION HURDLE PB: I couldn’t have given Khyber Kim a worse ride in the Greatwood as held him right out the back but then they hacked so for him to win was an unbelievable performance. He’s a Ferrari. He proved it was no fluke in the Boylesports when he beat Celestial Halo but I felt he was better in the Greatwood. I was praying they wouldn’t run him in the Totesport Trophy as that could have taken the edge off him. If he runs I don’t think Solwhit has the speed and I rate Go Native my main danger. Good-to-soft will be okay for my fellow. MW: I’ve been with Go Native all season who kicked on too early when he won the Supreme. He is all speed and there is no substitute for speed in the Champion Hurdle. Celestial Halo could be the only front runner which makes him interesting if he were to slow it down and he could get the run of the race. I would not be surprised if he turns up with something different this year and I better not say anything more. Starluck is a million for me as won’t get up the hill. There was mucus found in Solwhit’s system and the same problem for Pittoni so I would be worried about the Byrnes horses running next week. AM: No strong view at the top of the market but I do feel that Donnas Palm is overpriced at 50/1. BSM: I backed Zaynar before it got beat at Kelso as on a line through Starluck he has the beating of Go Native but they have got to make a lot more use of him. I think Khyber Kim needs more cut and also wants a real gallop and not sure he will get that this year if Ruby slows it up in front on Celestial Halo. TUESDAY SHOULDER RACES (basically only the William Hill Trophy) PB: I was on a panel with Alan King last night and he came across with very honest opinions and he was very keen on Bensalem in the William Hill Chase. Razor Royale probably runs in the same race but it may come a bit quick for him. MW: Character Building has had a wind op this year but I am a Bensalem man off that mark. I just don’t like The Package as a horse – never have. AM: I am also keen on Bensalem and think his jumping will improve for a bigger field and faster pace. Theatrical Moment may be a right-handed track horse. BSM: I think Bensalem needs more cut. I like Theatrical Moment who has won his last two novice chases and the big field should suit. NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE PB: Rite Of Passage looks the one to beat. MW: Rite Of Passage is one of the lays of the meeting. They lumped on him in the Bumper last year but like the other Weld horses at the Festibal he was another that got beat. Rumours are he has had a wind problem and the form of his hurdles wins is awful. I’ve had a proper bet on Quel Esprit and I heard his blood wasn’t quite right when he was beaten last time. There will be more money for him. AM: Rite Of Passage has not taken on anything of note over hurdles. Maybe I am biased as I have a share in Reve De Sivola but I think he is the value at 12/1. His hurdling has to improve but he has been well schooled since he won the Challow where he beat Finians Rainbow who is half his price. If he hurdled better that day he could have won five or ten lengths. He goes well fresh so has been deliberately kept back for this. BSM: Rite Of Passage didn’t come down the hill in the Bumper last year. I’d be worried about the ground for Reve De Sivola and Peddlers Cross just can not win. Summit Meeting is a bit of value at 16/1 and had his form franked at the weekend. RSA CHASE PB: Sam is under pressure on Long Run and he will blamed if it goes wrong. I don’t think Diamond Harry gets up the hill. I won on Weird Al at Wetherby and he is a good horse and has a chance. MW: I couldn’t understand why Waley-Cohen took the outside route at Warwick on Long Run when the horse was jumping to his right – I thought he went to public school! I can’t have him at the price as he just hurdles too many fences. Burton Port could be the one. Sneaky old Henderson wanted to run him at Aintree as he has two already in the race but Hemmings said no. My contact at the yard says he just does not stop improving and McCoy has been booked so I see him starting nearer 10/1 at the off. I just don’t think the Weird Al formlines are strong enough. AM: Diamond Harry has yet to run a bad race but his jumping at Newbury was a worry. Also not sure he is quite good enough. I like Weapon’s Amnesty so I hope the mucus problem at the yard has not extended to him. He has done it before at the meeting. Long Run strikes me more as an Aintree horse. GW: Waley-Cohen gets some stick but he still seems to get them home. BSM: Long Run is just a five-year-old so only receives 1lb and his rider can’t claim either so the way I see it is that he effectively has overweight. I’m all over Punchestowns. It’s a weapon. Weird Al has been beating rotting corpses this season and Diamond Harry needs it soft. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE PB: I was second to Master Minded at Newbury and if he runs like that again he wins though there is a danger he was so good he may have left his race behind. He’s miles ahead of last year’s Arkle form. MW: Master Minded is not for me at the price and still being judged on his win in this race two years ago. He only did what he was entitled to at Newbury. I’ve gone with Arkle form that always seems to work out in this race and backed Kalahari King and Forpadydeplasterer who both also look like getting their decent ground. I can’t have Kalahari King out of the frame who is an each-way thieves horse. I also can’t have Twist Magic running well. McCoy has been booked for Forpadydeplasterer and he looks the ideal partner for him. AM: Kalahari King is the one. Forpady needs a strong pace and good ground which he has not had since last year’s Arkle so I also see a big run from him. GW: No view except I can’t have Twist Magic. BSM: Master Minded should be 1-3 if back to his best. Kalahari King e/w is the only possible bet. WEDNESDAY SHOULDER RACES PB: Pettifour has a very good chance of running into a place in the NH Chase and he will definitely stay. MW: O’Grady is keen on Capellanus in the Fred Winter and I’ve been told that Hidden Universe is the best of Weld’s in the Bumper but with Smullen riding he will have two and a half stones of lead weight in the saddle. Drunbaloo has been well backed recently and is the form horse of the Bumper and I think the gamble will continue. I was told that Quantitativeeasing worked very well this morning and he could be very well in off 139 in the Coral Cup. AM: Barwell Bridge interests me for the Fred Winter if he runs here rather than the Triumph as does Abbeybraney in the NH Chase who was second to Notre Pere on testing ground two years ago. Beshabar is favourite for the Coral Cup but he looks best going right-handed. RYANAIR CHASE PB: Poquelin looks the best bet of the meeting at the prices. He slaughtered Razor Royale at Cheltenham and I then won the Racing Post Chase on him. I think Poquelin is a much better horse than Tranquil Sea. MW: This is a two horse race and I have backed Poquelin big and saved on Tranquil Sea. Cheltenham form means a lot in this race. Voy Por Ustedes has gone and Barbers Shop is a dodgepot. The ambulance boys will have their binoculars firmly glued on Richard Johnson on Planet Of Sound. AM: My problem with Tranquil Sea is they gave him a recent prep before the last two Festivals and he disappointed both times here and they have given him another recent prep. GW: If you can get 2/1 the top two combined then that is a great bet. BSM: A small each-way stab on Planet Of Sound for me even thought I know he can’t jump. Hobbs thinks he is the best he has got. WORLD HURDLE PB: Big Buck’s is a cert. It’s a weak race bar Karabak and King said last night he has not been working brilliantly of late. In fact he suggested Katchit at 33/1 each-way as his bet. MW: Big Buck’s is the most solid of the four odds-on shots. I thought I had a sneaky one in Cousin Vinny but am told he dislikes hurdles now as much as he does fences so it could be the Lincoln next! AM: I can see Time For Rupert running well but Tidal Bay is the only realistic alternative. BSM: Big Buck’s is buying money. There has not been a shekel on the machine for Karabak for two weeks and Sentry Duty has no chance as just beat two dodgy horses in a three runner last time. THURSDAY SHOULDER RACES (basically only the Pertemps Final) PB: Kayf Aramis always runs a solid race and will run well in the Pertemps Final especially as the bottom weight may be on about 10st 12lbs so the less exposed horses have less chance of getting in so it could be a flag bearer’s race. MW: Alfie Sherrin could be miles ahead of the handicapper in the Pertemps and Ainama has clearly been plotted up for this. AM: Elzahann is my Pertemps fancy as she caught the eye in the Cheltenham qualifier and is a spring mare but could do with Fair Along coming out as she has just 9st 7lbs. GW: If Harry Findlay gets stuck into Alfie Sherrin I can see him starting at 3/1 especially as he will also be a public horse being Nicholls and Walsh. TRIUMPH HURDLE (time was cracking on so they whizzed through this in 2 minutes) MW: The worst Triumph in a long time. A man whose speed figures I note said Alaivan put up a great time last time but he is small so will a big field suit? I am worried for Notus De La Tour that he is not running in the Imperial Cup which suggests to me all is not well with him. AM: Good ground would worry me for Alaivan. ALBERT BARTLETT HURDLE PB: Tell Massini reminds me of Denman. His form is on softer ground but he will still take all the beating. Alan King said he wasn’t sure if The Betchworth Kid was man enough for this. MW: I’ve backed Shinrock Paddy who is crying out for three miles. AM: I would oppose Restless Harry whose improvement has coincided with getting soft ground. Tell Massini looks a machine on soft ground but close to good ground would really worry me. BSM: I am all over Enterprise Park who won over 2m and then won again stepping up to 2m6f and the form of that win is working out well. I also think Tell Massini and Restless Harry need soft ground and need to lead so they could not get their ground and cut each other’s throats and set it up for Walsh stalking on Enterprise Park. GOLD CUP PB: Imperial Commander’s Haydock run was no fluke and I thought I had won. I have never been going so fast at the end of a three mile chase and agree with Ruby that Kauto Star was a bit short on the day. If we finish second to Kauto Star I will be delighted as he is still a young horse and the trip is not a concern. I would be disappointed if we are not very close to Denman at worst. MW: I can’t have Denman. Maybe the Hennessy took more out of him than we thought. I’ve backed Tricky Trickster at massive prices who is a young horse and a strong stayer and when these Nicholls horses start improving they can go through the roof. I still think 20/1 each-way now is a great bet as Cooldine won an awful RSA Chase. AM: Cooldine has had legitimate excuses since he won the RSA and peaks at this time of the year but the one I like is Imperial Commander as the key to him is a good break between his races which he has here. GW: I feel Denman could easily drift out to 5/1 on the day. BSM: Imperial Commander each-way is the bet as I can’t have Cooldine as his RSA Chase form is worth nothing. FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES (again rushed as getting late) MW: Ashkazar is lobbed in on old form in the Martin Pipe race and he could develop into one of the big gambles of the meeting. Dave’s Dream is interesting in the Grand Annual as is a novice and trained by Henderson which are both good pointers, An audience member then highlighted the Irish-trained Kilty Storm for the Foxhunters’, a horse he says is currently residing in his back garden! He went on to tell us all about the good horses he has beaten in Irish points and hunter chases since moving from David Pipe, an experience he hated as he needs a small stable environment which he now has.
Probably not the place, but I done a Lucky 15 for the Tuesday with Dunguib, Sizing Europe, Go Native and Sizing Australia,. Win bet of course,.
no, you're in the right place i can see the 4 of them winning, and i did go for captain cee bee myself but andrew lynch has said that captain cee bee won't get within 20 lenghts of sizing europe. Everyone in the room laughed when he said it, but he did say it nonetheless
The friendliest preview evening on the circuit chaired by Chris Pitt that we report back from each year though this was my first visit back here in three years. The panel comprised of RacingUK presenter and pundit Lydia Hislop (LH) and Steve Mellish (SMel), The Daily Mail’s Sam Turner (ST) aka Robin Goodfellow, Channel 4 Racing’s Stewart Machin (SMac) and Andy Gibson (AG) who runs the racing-based website Patterns and Profiles. SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE LH: Dunguib is too short so is my lay of the meeting so happy to take him on at the price. Get Me Out Of Here, Menorah and Peddlers Cross have already posted ratings good enough to place in a normal year so this is a strong running. Menorah got a bizarre ride when beaten at Ascot and I feel Get Me Out Of Here is a good price. SMel: Dunguib is priced up as if he is already a champion which he isn’t as yet. Menorah and Get Me Out Of Here each-way appeal against him. ST: They will have watered which will play to the strengths of Blackstairmountain who is fair each-way value. He had only schooled once before winning his only start at Punchestown so there is a lot more to come. I’d rather back Wolves to stay up at 4/6 than Dunguib at similar odds. There are much better 4/6 shots running during any week. SMac: I am happy to let Dunguib win at that price. I would be interested in Peddlers Cross if he rocked up here and thought it was interested he was jocked up for this race and not the Neptune. AG: Dunguib is one of the weaker odds-on shots of the meeting as all his form is on soft ground and all his hurdling form is in small fields. ARKLE TROPHY LH: Somersby is my banker of the meeting. This is the strongest I have felt about a horse at the Festival for a long time. It was a big positive for him to place in the Supreme and I don’t know how anyone can criticize the form of his Sandown win which was also run in a faster time than Twist Magic posted in the Tingle Creek on the same day. Captain Cee Bee’s overall profile is fragile and Sizing Europe is a coward. Kangaroo Court is the overpriced contender. SMel: I’m a fully paid up member of the Somersby fan club. Riverside Theatre is a rock solid jumper and the main danger. ST: There has been a lot of strength behind Somersby this week and has many factors in his favour. At a bigger price Shakervilz interests me as he is 2-2 over fences and has a similar chance to Captain Cee Bee on a line through Osana but is a 20/1 chance so he is each-way value. SMac: Most Arkle winners have had a prep run which is against Somersby but I like him and his jumping at Sandown was fantastic. A degree of momentum gathered around Captain Cee Bee a few weeks back but I feel Somersby will take a heck of a lot of beating. AG: The problem I have with Somersby is that he has only beaten six horses over fences and the way he runs suggests he wants further. I am on Shakervilz who is unbeaten over fences. Captain Cee Bee is the most likely winner. I know he is a 9yo but he had a season off. It could be an Irish 1-2-3 as Sizing Europe’s form has substance. CHAMPION HURDLE LH: I can’t have Binocular at all and too much momentum gathered around Medermit so he looks too short now and I can envisage him drifting. Zaynar and Khyber are s**t or bust horses that could win or be nowhere but I can’t get it out of my head how well Punjabi travelled in the Boylesports and, if forced, I would go with him. That said, I have been against Zaynar all year but he hasn’t had a strong gallop or cheekpieces fitted this season so could see it now. SMel: I could see any of five or six winning and there is only 7lbs between the first nine in the betting. I have doubts about Go Native staying in a strongly run race and worries about Zaynar for the opposite reason and Medermit could hit a flat spot and is too short now. Celestial Halo boasts the single best piece of form this season when he won at Wincanton but I fully accept he bombed last time and I am hearing he has not worked well recently. ST: Starluck will give you a run for your money but I am very much in the Go Native camp. The two trials he won were not the best ever but he won them well and goes well fresh so the break is a positive. He is a good back-to-lay bet in running. SMac: You can’t back Binocular but maybe Celestial Halo could get a soft lead as I can’t see another front runner. I am not sure Go Native is good enough as he has little in hand over Medermit and Starluck when winning and this was never the plan for Medermit this season and he was going chasing. Punjabi is a player and Henderson was not at all discouraged by his two defeats. Khyber Kim is also a player if he can hold it all together. Punjabi and Khyber Kim against the field for me. AG: I am quite strong on Go Native. If held onto longer I think he would have beaten Medermit further in the Supreme. The danger is the gap opening at the wrong time. Celestial Halo’s best form is off a break and he has run well at the last two Festivals and he could be an in-running play. The trip is too short for Zaynar on this ground but Punjabi is a spring horse and can reverse Haydock form with Medermit. Khyber Kim is 3-3 on soft ground. NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE LH: No strong view. I would prefer to see Peddlers Cross run here. I think Reve De Sivola is intrinsically a better horse than Finian’s Rainbow but he has no respect for his hurdles. I do like Summit Meeting and respect the trainer who is very selective who she brings to Cheltenham and he is bred to want this likely better ground. Of course I also respect Rite Of Passage. SMel: Rite Of Passage murdered Donnas Palm on the Flat and I feel that he could be very good. Reve De Sivola never ran on the Flat so it is understandable why he keeps improving and, if he jumps like he can, he has the most ability of the British runners. Finian’s Rainbow didn’t like it when it was put up to him in the Challow when Reve de Sivola beat him and the winner is twice his price. ST: The Irish could have a very big day on the Tuesday with such a strong looking team and if so they could steam right into Rite Of Passage here. Reve De Sivola e/w is my idea of the bet as although I know the Challow winner has a poor record here, that form is working out really well this season. He reminds me of past winners of this race in that he is a headbanger that just keeps on going. SMac: Peddlers Cross is a live player if he runs here. Finian’s Rainbow was a moral winner of the Challow as the awful ground caught him out close home but stats are not in his favour as only one 7yo has won this race since it was first run in 1971. AG: The problem I have with Reve De Sivola is that it took him six runs to get off the mark. I like Finian’s Rainbow most and reckon Quel Esprit is better than he looked last time but Peddlers Cross is not as good as he looked last time. RSA CHASE LH: Sam Waley-Cohen is a very good amateur but he is an amateur which is why I prefer Punchestowns. I have the feeling he has had foot problems all his life so not sure I would be concerned about Henderson’s recent comments as this was the first time he felt compelled to mention it with a big race approaching. I can’t knock Weird Al but he just lacks the X-Factor for me though you don’t need that for this race. Maybe Diamond Harry prefers flatter tracks. SMel: I think Long Run is the most likely winner as after I saw him at Kempton I thought he was something very special but the price has gone now. I massively respect Punchestowns but the downhill fences do worry me. At the prices and on condition of NR No Bet as he is not a certain runner, I do see The Nightingale as a very good horse. ST: Waley-Cohen is a very talented amateur so I am still with Long Run. I was so impressed with him at Kempton and the runner-up has franked the form twice. He came from Guillaume Macaire who schools them 4-5 times a week so I am not worried about his jumping. If The Nightingale runs I would also back him. SMac: I don’t think Weird Al has the class to win it. Punchestowns is the proven Grade 1 horse, a bigger price that Long Run and a proven stayer. AG: The one of the Henderson pair that jumps best on the day should win. Long Run is short enough with an amateur on. Diamond Harry does not appeal as a horse that wants a hill after 3m. I have had a small interest on Weird Al who has twice won at the track and is 3-3 for this season and if I like him then 33/1 Knockara Beau is too big. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE LH: No strong view but Master Minded was very convincing at Newbury except for the bizarre mistake at the final fence. This is a better race than last year though so he will have to put up a better performance than last year. SMel: Master Minded is a better 4/5 shot than Dunguib. Twist Magic is more consistent this season and comfortably the main danger. ST: The Nicholls yard felt Master Minded would improve for Newbury where he was tremendously impressive and his work with Kauto Star which has been exhilarating since apparently. The value has dried up about Kalahari King but he is the obvious e/w alternative. SMac: Master Minded is officially 5lbs superior to Twist Magic and I can see Kalahari King picking up the pieces to finish second. AG: Master Minded looks just about back to his best. The only danger is Kalahari King and this compact field will be more to his advantage than when beaten in a big field in the Arkle. Twist Magic has acquired his rating on soft ground on right-handed tracks in small fields when front running. The prelims could also hurt him. Big Zeb is too short for me so Forpadydeplasterer is the best of the Irish. I’ve backed Well Chief e/w without Master Minded as can see him ridden for a place as they know he can not win and he could nick fourth. WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER At this point leading owner John Hales who was in the audience informed us that earlier in the day they had booked Ruby Walsh for Al Ferof. RYANAIR CHASE LH: Poquelin’s chance is ground dependant as he would not want it soft. Barbers Shop has a strong chance at this trip. I feel Deep Purple is overpriced and maybe better going left-handed and he broke a blood vessel in the King George but prior to that he was on a sharp upward curve. SMel: I am not a fan of this race and will be sitting it out with the cross country race. It’s like having a 150m race at the Olympics. On soft ground Tranquil Sea is a massive player but if it is nearer good then that will suit Poquelin. ST: I’m very keen on Barbers Shop e/w as his strengths lay over this trip as his stamina has given way over further. SMac: On good ground Poquelin, on soft ground Tranquil Sea. I do feel Voy Por Ustedes has got to a big price now. AG: Tranquil Sea is a strong bet if it came up testing but on good ground it is worth a pop at a couple at big prices. I’m on Schindlers Hunt at a big price and Albertas Run is too big and is 2-3 at the track. It’s a possibility that Voy Por Ustedes has gone but I didn’t think he had much chance in any of the three races he has run in this season beforehand. WORLD HURDLE LH: Big Buck’s’ flat spot was longer last time maybe as the ground was very soft. He could be a deceptive traveller who is going better than he appears. He is the best staying hurdler I have seen. Time For Rupert is a definite place player and connections are pleased with Lie Forrit so if we can remove his last run he could sneak a place. SMel: I would say Tidal Bay is a win bet rather than an each-way bet as he is Tidal Bay but I feel Karabak is the main danger to Big Buck’s. ST: Big Buck’s will throw in the towel at some point. Tidal Bay has won 11 of his 23 starts so isn’t bad for a supposedly dodgy horse but the price is ebbing away. SMac: Big Buck’s will hit a flat spot at some point and I think he might drop the lot so he is my lay of the meeting. Tidal Bay is a leading player and it is probably a relief to him he is back hurdling again and I still think he is too big a price. Alan King says that Katchit is working better now than he has done for two years. AG: Big Buck’s obviously. Tidal Bay has never been out of the first two in nine starts over hurdles and I just prefer him to be second but the best bet is Time For Rupert at 10/1 without the favourite. He would be a shorter price if with a more fashionable yard. TRIUMPH HURDLE LH: I did take the view that Carlito Brigante was a doubtful stayer but am not so convinced about that now. I’m not convinced by Alaivan if it dries out and can see Westlin’ Winds running well. SMel: I don’t like 9f/10f horses in juvenile hurdles so am worried about Carlito Brigante getting home and, of the two at the head of the market, Alaivan is the stronger stayer and ticks a lot of boxes and is the class act in the race. He is unproven on quicker ground but may handle it. ST: O’Grady says Alaivan is coming right at the right time and I believe it is between him and Carlito Brigante with the latter better e/w value. I am told Soldatino frets a lot so maybe it would best to see how he handles the prelims first. SMac: The British hand looks weak and I don’t fancy Advisor at all. Soldatino could be our best and he had only been with Henderson for six weeks before he won the Adonis so there could be stacks of improvement to come. Soldatino if pressed. AG: I prefer Carlito Brigante to Alaivan and Secant Star of the top three in the betting with Westlin’ Winds the best at double figure prices. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE LH: I am fond of Restless Harry who I think is a thorough stayer but I am worried he doesn’t jump straight. I am slightly interested in The Hurl at this trip at a big price and also Shinrock Paddy. SMel: Silver Kate has shown improved form but the ground is a worry. I am against The Betchworth Kid who I am not sure will stay or try very hard. ST: Shinrock Paddy will be better on better ground and upped to 3m so is a player. Tell Massini looks a real street fighter and I like him. SMac: I think they know what they have had for a long time with Tell Massini and I’m told he’s working very well at home by people who should know so he can take a lot of beating. AG: Who knows which of the four at the head of the market will improve most for better ground as all their form is on a soft surface. Tell Massini and Restless Harry like to front run which makes me slightly prefer the Irish pair of Enterprise Park and Shinrock Paddy more but I can also see this falling to a big priced winner. GOLD CUP LH: Kauto Star has put up 17 straight 170+ performances and although Kempton suits him best he is still clear of his rivals on Cheltenham runs. I think Denman may have one big run him a season now and he looks to have had it in the Hennessy so Imperial Commander is the danger with Tricky Trickster the least exposed runner so is more interesting than most. SMel: Kauto Star’s King George performance was the best I have ever seen and keeps proving his critics wrong. I think he will win but I can not get my head around the without-favourite markets as a lot depends on how the race will be run. I think Denman could drift to as big as 6/1 but I really hope he runs a race. ST: I am told Kauto Star is working better than he has ever worked. Tricky Trickster without the favourite for me is a bet and he is reportedly improving week on week. Even 20/1 in the outright market is a big price. SMac: Kauto Star is the most obvious winner and Imperial Commander is the second best chaser I have seen this year and think his Haydock run has been too easily dismissed. AG: Denman was too short at 7/2 after unseating McCoy last time and is now drifting to the price he should be. In a book with Kauto Star I think Denman is a weak favourite and think it is worth supporting both Imperial Commander and Cooldine in that market and lay Denman for a place. Betting without the front two I quite like My Will e/w at 40/1 as he could sneak into fifth paying 10/1 a place.