https://tomkinstimes.com/2019/01/domestic-cups-mean-nothing-in-terms-of-winning-the-big-trophies/ Not everyone will agree with all the sentiment in it,but it takes down the myth of cup runs and momentum.
I can't for the life of me understand how he things momentum is a myth? Any example were a team has won a cup he uses just the final for his example, Chelsea were 9 points clear, Arsenal had already won the league etc. Surely the games they won on route could be used to point out momentum was beneficial? Why exclude the champions league from his exercise, either winning football matches is good or bad for momentum or it isn't? The type of matches don't mean much. For what its worth I couldn't give a shit about either cup, this season I'm kind of half arsed about the champions league too so he's preaching to the converted in this case yet I still can't agree with him. Momentum is what got us into a league title challenge in 2014, it's what won City and Chelsea the league in the last 2 seasons. It's absolutely vital to any team that wants to win the league.
I don't agree that momentum is a myth either,its a common belief among the stats guys though and Id imagine its because they've a distrust of anything they can't measure.What I do 100% agree with is cup runs have a negative impact on points totals and momentum either positive or negative only exists in players minds. But there's a lot of things that only exist in our minds,pressure and confidence being two more examples but I'm pretty sure nobody would ever claim they're a myth. I'm not sure if it was where he was going with it but what I took from it apart from whatever momentum can be gained from a cup run having far less value than measurable benefits like less games, is that there's a line between momentum pushing you along because you keep winning or you're winning because you're better than everybody else. How you gauge that,I don't know and I'm sure they don't have to be mutually exclusive.But the moral to the story seems to be winning a domestic cup won't propel you to league glory, if you're not good enough without it you won't be good enough with it and I think hes right.
A very long read, but a great article. Momentum in the league does not come from momentum in going further in domestic cups, that's his point. And yes, it's based on stats, but that's what I like, and it's what makes better sense than some opinion of "Winning vs Wolves in the cup means you're more likely to beat Man City in the league".
I think momentum in the league is just confidence in that how you are playing is going to keep getting you over the line. Once your confidence is dented or you stop believing that how you are playing will get you over the line then momentum is gone. Cup runs are funny as it is momentum would seem to be based on the any dog can have its day scenario due to one off games and once you believe you can do it once you can do it again, this I feel is also coupled to the nothing to lose scenario for underdog's so is what for me used cause the famous upsets of years ago. Looking at momentum being different for one type of competition to the other shows the affect of one on the other is negligible as far as I am concerned. How else can you explain excellent cup runs and even wins with getting relegated.
Even City's 56 points now is only bettered by 1st spot last season. Just looking back at 2008/9 season and Utd appear to stay on 65 points for 3 games straight, I take it game 27 was our 1-4 win and then Fulham defeat was game 28 but as far as I remember they didn't drop points in game 29 so this is a mistake? if anyone else can clarify. I'm well aware I've too much time on my hands
The game that worries me is United away. Lose that and I feel that the league could slip away from us. Losing there would be a huge psychological loss although with the way they're playing now may play into our hands instead of the Jose park the bus tactic
Without poo-pooing Leiester's title season completely, has there ever been a worse league campaign in general. We're 21 points off their winning total after 23 games! LFCRebel - youre right mate, Utd lost to us 1-4, then 0-2 to Fulham, and then won 7 and drew one of their final 8 games.
Would imagine the majority of our support are now resigned to us to finishing 2nd. If a poll was taken tonight I'd guess it would come out around 55%/45%. Plenty of games remaining so no need to panic just yet, especially as we're the ones 3 points ahead with less fixtures to deal with. A long way to go still.
Liverpool Echo has a widget where you can predict the winner of the remaining games for each of the top six. Fun way of seeing how it might pan out... https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/spo...s/liverpool-win-premier-league-title-15801007
Liverpool 94 City 93, Spuds 86 and Utd 81. Just answered on gut instinct the whole way through it with my first reaction to every game, we're looking grand again!
We win, City second, Spurs third, Chelsea fourth, Arsenal fifth and Manc Utd sixth. All only separated by a few points as you go down.