Hi, Given this type of discussion is no doubt taking place in the FG party on an ongoing basis, I thought it might be interesting to exchange a few views here. It's looking fairly certain that FF are going to keep supporting FG, so on that basis I'm assuming that there is not going to be a general election for now and we are going to continue to have a FG Taoiseach, regardless of who it is. So, who do you fancy for the job and why ?
To get the ball rolling.... I think I'd want Simon Coveney as our Taoiseach, from the options FG can offer. He strikes me as steady, intelligent, calculated and someone that I'd be willing to have a bit more confidence in than others (in FG) to represent me on the international arena. I'm not a fan of Enda and never have been, while Leo tends to have an opinion on everything and I would be concerned that he's almost more interested in getting in front of the cameras than getting the hard work done. I don't know much about Frances so don't have enough confidence in her by extension, while Richard has already failed to take over the leadership on a previous occassion and if he can't arrange a successful politcal coup, then he probably can't get a lot of the other important things done properly either. From the longer list of FG candidates, there's several other names that could get a mention and if I was to consider a couple of them, I think I'd probably bring the likes of Regina Doherty or Charlie Flannagan into my thinking, but neither strike me as being any better than Simon, so while neither appear to be putting themselves into contention, no point in debating about them too much.
I'd personally opt for the wildcard if I were FG and I would go for Harris. I think he has been hung out to dry in his recent post but given the time I could see him putting the health service first where many others have failed and used it as a policitical tool. I may be wrong and they are hardly a party I would ever trust or certainly ever vote for but I just think Harris is the least crooked of a bad bunch. Either way its a token jesture for them anyways as the opinion polls are going to dictate when and on what issue FF decides to take its moral stance rather than any issue, as expected. Lord have mercy on us Michael Mairtin will be our glorious leader by this time next year,
Hi Shane, I have to say, I've not seen much from him in terms of action while he's been in charge of health. That twitter message that was reported on the news the other day, from Charlie Flanagan apparently saying that he wants out of health etc. didn't give me much confidence - because while I'm sure it's a real bag of cats, he's only been in that office a relatively short time and hasn't covered himself on glory, unless I've missed something. I also am certain that this twitter message was no accident and if I'm right, it suggests that he has the backing of both Charlie and Frances... which is a fairly decent start if he was to throw his name into the mix. True enough... FF must be very tempted to pull the plug right now - the ratings are in their favour, compared to FG, the leadership of FG is a mess etc. That said, with Brexit about to be triggered, it would be a terrible time for Ireland to not have a strong stable government and if there was an election called today, you could be sure that they'd all bugger off for a while after getting elected and we'd have no real government until after the summer. Having said that, I suppose the flip side of the coin is that we don't currently have a strong stable government, so maybe it would be no worse ? Do you think he'd actually be any different (good or bad) from Enda ? .. must admit, I see much the same in the two of them unfortunitely, both school teachers trying to tell us all what to do, both seem to have high opinions of themselves but I can't see much substance behind either of those egos tbh. While I'd rather FF to FG, there are others in the FF ranks I'd much rather see as Taoiseach, if I was picking from just the two parties.
They were talking on newstalk a while ago, some new poll has Coveney ahead with the parliamentary party.
Intersting, although I would guess that if the likes of the other Simon, Richard etc. enter the race they might eat into Coveney's support a bit as they are all a little more on par .... Leo on the other hand, is a bit more of a shoot from the hip type of guy so probably differs from the others in that regard.
Leo has given FF a huge boost today with his proposed strike ban policy.Whether you agree with him or not (and I know there's a few on here that do)there's a lot of public sector workers in this country.It will be a long time before any of them vote Labour again no matter how much SIPTU endorse them and for all their faults,FF actually have a reputation for looking after the public sector.They lost a lot of votes in that demographic after the crash but this country votes in the main in our own interest.FF should be all over this saying they don't agree with the policy,it could be huge for them. Leo has completely out manoeuvred Coveney by having all his ducks in a row at soon as Enda fired the gun and many on the fence or on the Coveney side have come out and backed Varadkar for fear of backing the wrong horse.Leo has played to the core FG support by focusing on their favourite target,social welfare spongers and today was another one,the public sector.In case he hasn't noticed though there will be an election to win eventually and core FG support won't be enough to do that.Massive own goal today and for good measure he announces it on the day the pay talks begin.Varadkar won't be Taioseach for long.
I was thinking it was a very unusual step for Leo alright but it might just be some nonsense that he's spouting while he needs to appeal to FG voters only (which is what will be needed to get himself elected in the first place though he looks to have that in the bag already so I'm not sure it was even necessary at this point). The rights or wrongs of it will never get mutual agreement from those inside versus those on the outside of the public sector but whether he likes it or not he must accept that the PS (thanks largely to FF swelling the numbers - about 100k increase from 94 to 2008) makes up a very powerful lobby and he'd do well to remember that. I, personally, really hate the fact that so few people can cause so much havoc for so many people whenever they chose but a ban on striking is fundamentally going to be almost impossible to implement and almost 100% going to contravene EU law. I work in the aviation industry and one of the biggest issues we have is dealing with the fallout from French air traffic controllers going on strike on a bi-annual basis (average salary for them is about €110K - incidentally in Ireland it's about €160K) and the whole of Europe suffering on account of it. But other than a few blustery comments from Michael O'Learly about it there's little that's ever going to change about it until a sea change happens in the technology for planes flying around the world which makes the air traffic controller completely redundant.
Leo's forever spouting out something, much of which then seems to fizzle away.... as I've said above, I think he just shoots from the hip (possibly to gain attention - given "all press, is good press" ....) Pitty the SF lads can't force a general election on this change of Taoiseach issue as I'd like the country to go to the polls now and give a new mandate, but it's not going to happen. I was watching The Week in Politics recently and there was a non-TD (I think she was a lecturer from UL actually), who made a very good point about how it would be better to get an election over with now and give a new mandate - rather than risk an election after the 3 Budgets guarantee had finished and FF pulled the plug, right before Brexit occurs and we're all over the shop. Thought it was a very good point.
Was very surprised the grassroots voted against Leo by such a big margin.He was up against an opponent trying to take the party further left and got battered,strange turn of events and could be a snapshot of the problems he'll face with the electorate as a whole.If you're so badly beaten in a demographic where your policies should play well then I think you need to consider you've other problems beyond those policies. I know it wont happen but imo his only chance of leading the next government is to call the election himself claiming he needs a mandate,and soon.This government will fall before the full term and if he lets FF collapse it after whatever crisis that eventually leads them to do it,then it's game over.Recently heard somebody say if you take yourself down then at least you're the one in control and surely its a better option (in terms of ambition anyway)than letting FF claim the moral highground and ride the wave of whatever FG fuck up they use.Varadkar cant implement a policy without FF allowing them to anyway so what other options has he got to strengthen FG before the next election happens?
I'm expecting to see Leo offer Simon a decent job now, to help get a big group hug going throughout the party.....I'd not fancy Simon Harris's chances of keeping his ministerial job though. It will be interesting to see what changes Leo makes, looks like he's keeping Frances for now, while I think Richard will get promoted to Finance with Eoghan Murphy keeping the Financial Services gig. That free's up Education for someone and perhaps also Health, if my suspicions are right that young Simon Harris is going to get the bullet. I'm not expecting Leo to rock the boat too much, but there's probably a couple of Leo's mates that he'll want to look after now he's top dog. Unfortunately, he won't change jack sh1t with the Independent Alliance and their various ministerial jobs, despite the fact that not one of them has impressed in their roles to date and all should be removed for failing to deliver. FF have a bit of a problem on their hands as I see it, so they won't be calling an election anytime soon unless FG make a seriously big fuk up (I mean bigger than anything we've seen from them to date). As you'll be aware, FG have got a bit of a bounce in the polls and I don't think people are ready to put FF back into power on their own... also, there's a question in my mind as to whether or not FF's current leader would appeal to the electorate as a potential Taoiseach. FF won't get into bed with SF while Gerry's there, so I'd imagine they'll continue to prop FG up for a couple of years yet. As I mentioned earlier, I thought that suggestion about having an early election to get a steady government in place for the Brexit deal would make a lot of sense...but I suspect that won't happen now and instead, Leo will cut a new deal with FF to extend the term of the current deal so they can get past Brexit (with bloomin' Enda coming back as Minister for Brexit.... just when I thought I was finally rid of him )
What has Leo really achieved? Done nothing at all in health and Just seems to have contempt for general public. To me looks like someone who will continue to look after his Chums rather than those who need help. Who knows, maybe he will really turn the country around instead of the current upturn that again seems to be built on mad property prices. Young lads and lassies in work paying half their wages every month in rent needs to be sorted, homelessness crisis and hospital waiting listings should be top of his list. Not to mention sorting out the Garda and getting tough on crime with tougher sentences.
Thats not the sort of stuff I'd ever expect the blue shirts to sort out, no matter what sort of spin they put out.... Anyway, I'm sure the poor old FG party are all exhausted after this little internal election of theirs so other than the formality of appointing Leo as Taoiseach and him appointing his new cabinet, it's holiday time for the next three months I fear... Bottom line, they think they are better than the rest of us, so I've very little time for most of them
Leo has managed to pull a stroke with FG's new appointment to the judiciary(new politics my bollocks)and make FF look weak in the process.When asked whether this appointment could jeopardise the arrangement they have with FF,he said "everybody knows they have the power to bring down the government if they choose to,its a question you'll have to ask them". Basically putting it out there that if FF want the PR benefits of pretending to be in opposition,Micheal Martin needs to be willing to put his money where his mouth is,while safe in the knowledge he's not.Pretty clever to be fair although its fuckin horrendous how much contempt they have between them for people in this country.
Regardless of anything else people might say about Leo, he's a bright boy.... FF have a far more capable opponent now than they ever had in Enda .... FF have missed their chance imho (in fact, they've probably missed a couple of chances). No one really gives a sh1t about cronyism despite what they all say (every party who have ever governed has been guilty of it), so that won't be the cause of FF walking out of the current arrangement. In fact, at this stage, I can see them being more likely to do a deal to extend the term of the current arrangement with FG, rather than cut it short !
Given all the mad stuff in the U.K., Leo could do anything in for next few weeks and would barely register Saw him at Downing St today and he looked very nervous making some silly joke about Love Actually
Think he's previously admitted to not having good social skills, or not good with crowds / strangers, or something similar... which is kinda odd for someone who is going to represent out country on the international arena etc.
I met him at an event a couple of years ago when he was Minister for Transport,Tourism and Sport, he did seem quite shy and nervous but seemed sound enough at the time. Tall and handsome too, unlike Enda, Cowen, Bertie and so on and on...he won't look out of place on the world stage if he gets a chance at that kind of thing.
Wouldn't be hard to be honest. I think you could pick any person at random, and you'd have a very good chance they'd be a step up on Enda.