Brexit

They probably don't want a Labour government but it's far from the last thing they want. Corbyn will respect the GFA and peace will be his no.1 priority in Northern Ireland.He won't be pushing for a United Ireland,it will jeopardise peace. There will be an election in the next 18 months or so anyway and they won't commit political suicide for such a short period in bed with the Tories,especially when they could end up with a Labour government anyway. Devolution will return, they'll want to protect their Westminster seats and allowing Teresa May to impose anything that even looks like it dilutes the union will leave them as also rans in Stormont,never mind Westminster. When they say they'll collapse the government,I don't think they're bluffing.Mays delaying tactics might get the Budget passed but everybody is running out of options.Even the shitbags who need May to take the blame for a bad deal/"sell out",are under increasing pressure to take her down. The really dumb Brexiteers can't understand why the hardliners in the party haven't made a move on her.

 

Was reading recently that by 2030 if current birth rates continue, Northern Ireland will be predominately Catholic, possibly even by 2027. When I went to Uni up there 20 years ago I would have said that a lot of what I would call middle class Catholics who may not count themselves as Nationalists would probably rather stay in the UK if there was a referendum. Much better education system, free health care and in general a better standard of life. Fast forward to Now with no local government, Brexit on horizon a lot lower wages than Republic, NHS on the decline and generally a bit of a laughing stock with the DUP, I’d say a fair few Protestants who would not count themselves as Unionest would be tempted to join the Republic of Ireland, espically those with business interests. Often people confuse folks religion in Northern Ireland with their political alliengences.

I’d say with the anniverarsy of Partition coming up in May 2021 you will start to see a real push for United Ireland. Hope to see it in my lifetime anyway. Might give us a better chance of qualifying for the World Cup!!!

 

Lot of talk that this thing is nearly done now with the border issue seemingly close to finalised! Wonder if the rise of the right across the EU has lit a light under the negotiations to get this sorted while Pro EU leaders were at the top table. Either way best to just press ahead and get this done, they're not voting again so no point dragging it out

 

We'll wait and see Ed but I'll be amazed if the border issue is even close to finalised in a way May can get support for. The message the British negotiators are sending out the last couple of days are far more optimistic than the message from EU negotiators,even if Coveney was a bit more diplomatic than Barnier. The EU haven't moved on their red lines from day 1,they can't allow a non member preferential treatment to members and the hard Brexiteers won't accept regulatory alignment with the EU while the DUP won't accept the backstop. Imo it's the usual shite we've come to expect from Britain in these negotiations and in a week or two they'll be accusing the EU of being difficult.

 

I think May will put together a package based on what's available and go to the govt. with it, the agreement will be like a soft inclusion in the EU and you're right it will be far too much for Brexiters to support but May has no choice, she needs to put something forward and if it's rejected it's not her solely to blame if they crash out with a no deal. The sheer volume of EU laws, treaties, trade agreements etc. that the UK are signed up to is impossible to comprehend, it's already too late to fix them if there's no agreement so May is really stuck!

 

I think a bad consequence of the absolute clusterfuck of Brexit is that a lot of the problems within the EU have gone off the agenda for many,and when I say problems I mean actual problems,not the stupid Brexiteer arguments. They screwed us over and were willing to put Greece into a grave to stop them doing anything other than what they wanted them to do.Britain had a great situation as a member but there are countries who've been treated poorly in order to protect banks and corporations over people. Not that leaving is the answer,it obviously isnt but there's a lot wrong with the EU and I wonder what way we'd of voted if we'd of been offered a referendum not long after the bail out?

 

There are undoubtedly major issues within the EU which need to be reformed to make it more democratic and representative, and the blame for a lot of the rise in right wing sentiment can be at least partially laid at the door of the EU, or more specifically Germany and France for pushing their interests over all others. The strange thing is those are not the reasons the Brits want out.

 

They were saying on Newstalk that some conservatives will accept a deal they don't necessarily agree with in the fear that if May can't get the deal through she will call a second referendum instead of a general election. That would be box office stuff if it happened.

 

What would actually happen if they ran the referendum again and it was voted down, the whole country would be split in two for good. There'd be absolute war over it, I'd actually love it for the sheer drama of it even if the result stayed the same.

UK signed £2 billion worth of deals with China at an expo yesterday, expect to hear plenty about that in the coming days from any Brexiteers you know.

 

The second referendum may be pitched as a choice of:

1. Deal (whatever that is);
2. No-Deal; or
3. Stay in EU.

That would be interesting!

 

From the EU's point of view I can't see a 2nd referendum being acceptable. They have spend the guts of 2 years dealing with this nonsense and god only knows how many years prior to that dealing with Farage and his ilk. If there was a 2nd vote and they reversed the decision by a similarly tight margin then the call immediately starts for a third vote.

Best to suck up the short term pain and have it over with. From an Irish perspective that's a disaster but from the EU's it's probably for the best.

 

Deal done apparently, now May has to get the text signed off by parliament....this should be fun.

Incidentally I believe that the north has special status in it to prevent a hard border ever existing in Ireland so Arlene Foster's head should be exploding right around now!

 

This could be a fantastic situation for Northern Ireland getting the best of both worlds.Its the type of opportunity to grow the economy that other countries could only dream of,could being the operative word though.

 

I said it a few weeks back on here that it was going to provide a fascinating situation now where the DUP are in a position where they can essentially collapse the Government over this. Their problem of course is that they will never find themselves in such a position of strength every again in the UK but this might be that one situation that is worth throwing it all away for from the DUP's point of view. They won't care about the long term economic benefits this will certainly bring, they will only care that this will give the appearance to their support base that they have ceded some control over their affairs to Dublin instead of London and they will not be able to stomach that. I can't see anyway the Government can go on past this week unless May has something very serious that she can very publicly offer Foster in return for supporting this.

 

To be honest I think any leverage the DUP had is gone. With or without them I can't see May having the votes to get this through Parliament,if theres a genuine desire to bring down this government it will happen anyway and they need to be careful now.A possible way of salvaging something for Brexiteers could easily be cutting the North adrift and putting the border in the sea.If they're still under the illusion that anybody in the Tory party gives a fuck about them or Northern Ireland then they're even dumber than I thought they were,and I'm not sure that's possible.