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€200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Discussion in 'Gambling' started by Division, Nov 25, 2016.

  1. Division

    Division
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    I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June.

    Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.

    Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.

    I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.

    I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill

    *This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example.

    *Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.
     
    dogrady26 likes this.
  2. Division

    Division
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    Betting Round 1:

    English Premier League
    Hull v West Brom
    Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes
    Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1%
    Stake: €67

    English Premier League
    Swansea v Crystal Palace
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2%
    Stake: €56

    English Premier League
    Man Utd v West Ham
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7%
    Stake: €77
     
  3. Division

    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 1

    Hull 1-1 West Brom
    Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace
    Man Utd 1-1 West Ham

    Current Balance: €282
     
    dogrady26, Flipper1 and xRedmanLFCx like this.
  4. Daz

    Daz
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    that was a close call!!
     
    dogrady26, Fran74, elvis and 5 others like this.
  5. xRedmanLFCx

    xRedmanLFCx
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    Missed this on Saturday. Wow, what a start. 3/3! I'm getting on board this.
     
  6. Shane_90

    Shane_90
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    Hi mate, always interested to look at new ideas and theories.

    Do you have a process for selecting your bets? What is meant by the Expected Strike rate and the Expected value?

    Cheers
     
    dogrady26 likes this.
  7. sullycarr

    sullycarr
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    Not a bad start that
     
  8. Division

    Division
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    I price up the games myself.

    Expected strike rate is the percentage of the time that I expect the bet to win.

    Expected value shows if the odds offered provide value relative to my expected strike rate. Basically an EV > 100% means that I think there is value and and EV < 100% means its a bad bet (or should be layed).

    Taking an EV of 110%: If you bet €1 on this bet 100 times you would spend €100. The EV shows that I expect to get a total return of €110 (Profit =€10). I have seen long term estimated rates for professional bettors in the region of 104% to 108%.
     
  9. xRedmanLFCx

    xRedmanLFCx
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    How do you price the games up? Like I always pick odds in my head before checking the bookies prices to determine what I think is value or otherwise, but you gave managed to get expected strike rate to 1 decimal place which is very precise. Have you a formula for doing this?
     
  10. sullycarr

    sullycarr
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    Bit to technical for me o_Oo_Oo_O but will put a few bob on the best for the crack
     
  11. Flipper1

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    Great start, Going to follow this also.
     
  12. Division

    Division
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    Betting Round 2:

    English Premier League
    Crystal Palace v Southampton
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7%
    Stake: €82

    Spanish Primera Division
    Barcelona v Real Madrid
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1%
    Stake: €102

    Champions League
    Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4%
    Stake: €98
     
  13. Division

    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 2

    Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton
    Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid
    Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund

    Current Balance: €294
     
    DARREN26 and xRedmanLFCx like this.
  14. Division

    Division
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    Betting Round 3:

    English Premier League
    Everton v Arsenal
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7%
    Stake: €81

    English Premier League
    West Ham v Burnley
    Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3%
    Stake: €108

    English Premier League
    Crystal Palace v Man Utd
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1%
    Stake: €105
     
  15. Beanokelly

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    3 out of 3 again
     
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  16. Division

    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 3

    Everton 2-1 Arsenal
    West Ham 1-0 Burnley
    Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

    Current Balance: €406
     
  17. dogrady26

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    Just seeing this thread now but going to jump on board with you. Love your plan, solid work
     
    Division likes this.
  18. Division

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    Betting Round 4:

    English Premier League
    Tottenham v Burnley
    Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7%
    Stake: €99

    English Premier League
    West Ham v Hull
    Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4%
    Stake: €152

    English Premier League
    Everton v Liverpool
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3%
    Stake: €155
     
  19. dogrady26

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    Have you taken a break on this for the Christmas?
     
  20. Division

    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 4

    Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
    West Ham 1-0 Hull
    Everton 0-1 Liverpool

    Current Balance: €190

    English Premier League
    Everton v Man City
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4%
    Stake: €58

    English Premier League
    Swansea v Arsenal
    Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
    Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8%
    Stake: €64

    Spanish La Liga
    Sevilla v Real Madrid
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2%
    Stake: €68
     
    xRedmanLFCx likes this.

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