this is my constituency and is a titanic shift. There is generally a divide between Castleknock (FG / FG) and Mulhuddart (SF / Other lefts), so he clearly won a vast proportion in both areas. He was unlucky in 2016 to lose out to Labour but to top the poll is incredible. First time an outgoing Taoiseach will not top poll in an election
Hopefully the outcome of this election, won't be 3 months, or more, without a government. Suggestion that FG & FF will do almost anything to keep SF out of government, is probably right. If the early predictions are actuate, FF&FG together will offer a majority, or as close as they'd need, with a few independents backing them up. That looks the most likely next government to me. FF the larger party, so Michael gets the crown. They've already shown that they can work together no problem. Most of the template for a deal between the two is already there, from the last time around. Takes both of them another step closer to merging, IMHO. All that said, I don't think it's the wise move for FF and more importantly, I also don't think it would represent what the electorate want in their next government. A FF-SF deal strikes me as the more preferable.
Problem Micheal Martin has is his own TD's would rather go into coalition with SF than FG. They're obviously purposely putting that message out there because this is the second one to tell Fiach Kelly this today
Ireland is such an odd country, even in the face of a populist wave for SF we're still seeing the two major traditional parties getting a larger majority between them. I expect if they can't get a Govt. and we end up back in the polls that SF will be a lot smarter with their seats and would be the biggest party by some distance, that might just suit FF and FG right now to let SF show their hand in Govt and be judged on their actual performance instead of promises because every other option open to FF and FG might look a bit like a nail in their coffins.
That's down to the blue rinse brigade IMHO. They don't like change, and are highly unlikely to ever change from their historic voting habits. I also don't think that another election in a few weeks, or a few months time, would give us a very different result. SF have clearly secured more seats at this election, but those new TDs will now have to do their stuff in the Dail.
But they won't get to is my point, this is a resounding SF victory but they'll likely by the third biggest party at the end of the day and the only way they can put forward their mandate and be judged against their actual performance is if they can form their own majority. They need to get back to the polls with their candidates selection much better.
Whether it would or not Micheal Martin isn't very keen to find out. He appears to be close to a change of heart on who he's willing to deal with. Richard Bruton has been telling RTE how Sinn Fein would have to make big changes if they wanted to deal with FG. It's like their wearing that arrogant tag as a badge of honour at this point.
If Leo and Michael needed any (more) proof that the electorate didnt much care for being told that basically SF would go into Government over their dead bodies - Have the incumbent Taoiseach and supposed only viable alternative been outpolled in their own constituencies before? I obviously wasnt the only one who watched and listened to those "leader debates/interviews" and got left with the impression that both FF and FG just wanted us all to go to the polls and do what we were told was best for us, and then leave the making of a Gov top them because we clearly didnt have the insight of our glorious leaders.
Some big shoes to fill in those departments alright! But where would the logic be for FF to hand the portfolios of the two most important issues for voters in this election over to SF? Straight away they'd be seen to be passing the buck and as the senior party in government they'd still have to take a lot of the blame if things went badly while SF would take the lions share of the credit if things went well. I reckon it would be one or the other and if I had to guess I'd say housing to SF. Eoin O'Broin has been extremely impressive on that issue during this campaign.
Some lad in Mary Lou's constituency got 12 votes. Fuck me if he joined the local football team he would have doubled his numbers.
I think he's probably the lad that's running in about 10 constituencies, something O'Leary. He's demanding 72k for anyone renting a home to be given to them to buy a house based on the tax the landlord would pay on the rent.