I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June. Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others. Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League. I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value. I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill *This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example. *Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.
Betting Round 1: English Premier League Hull v West Brom Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1% Stake: €67 English Premier League Swansea v Crystal Palace Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2% Stake: €56 English Premier League Man Utd v West Ham Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7% Stake: €77
Results - Betting Round 1 Hull 1-1 West Brom Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace Man Utd 1-1 West Ham Current Balance: €282
Hi mate, always interested to look at new ideas and theories. Do you have a process for selecting your bets? What is meant by the Expected Strike rate and the Expected value? Cheers
I price up the games myself. Expected strike rate is the percentage of the time that I expect the bet to win. Expected value shows if the odds offered provide value relative to my expected strike rate. Basically an EV > 100% means that I think there is value and and EV < 100% means its a bad bet (or should be layed). Taking an EV of 110%: If you bet €1 on this bet 100 times you would spend €100. The EV shows that I expect to get a total return of €110 (Profit =€10). I have seen long term estimated rates for professional bettors in the region of 104% to 108%.
How do you price the games up? Like I always pick odds in my head before checking the bookies prices to determine what I think is value or otherwise, but you gave managed to get expected strike rate to 1 decimal place which is very precise. Have you a formula for doing this?
Betting Round 2: English Premier League Crystal Palace v Southampton Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7% Stake: €82 Spanish Primera Division Barcelona v Real Madrid Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1% Stake: €102 Champions League Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4% Stake: €98
Results - Betting Round 2 Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund Current Balance: €294
Betting Round 3: English Premier League Everton v Arsenal Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7% Stake: €81 English Premier League West Ham v Burnley Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3% Stake: €108 English Premier League Crystal Palace v Man Utd Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1% Stake: €105
Results - Betting Round 3 Everton 2-1 Arsenal West Ham 1-0 Burnley Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd Current Balance: €406
Betting Round 4: English Premier League Tottenham v Burnley Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7% Stake: €99 English Premier League West Ham v Hull Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4% Stake: €152 English Premier League Everton v Liverpool Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3% Stake: €155
Results - Betting Round 4 Tottenham 2-1 Burnley West Ham 1-0 Hull Everton 0-1 Liverpool Current Balance: €190 English Premier League Everton v Man City Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4% Stake: €58 English Premier League Swansea v Arsenal Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8% Stake: €64 Spanish La Liga Sevilla v Real Madrid Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2% Stake: €68