Over the last week or so it seems that the majority of questions from Liverpool fans relate to news of a potential takeover at Anfield. As one reader, KK, from Malaysia asks: "Surely the most important news that LFC fans would like to know if whether DIC is still interested and intend to buy LFC. Also we'd also like to know if USA are indeed willing to sell?" And Lee in Liverpool makes a very valid point when he says: "Guillem have you heard anything about DIC? Now that Man City have had there influx of Arabian cash we could start to find ourselves struggling to finish top four!" In fact, the points that you guys have raised about Champions League qualification, the takeover at Manchester City and the position of Gillett and Hicks are all very relevant. To begin with, we need to get away from the idea that it will be Dubai International Capital that ultimately takes control of Liverpool football club. DIC have, until now, been operating on behalf of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum as the private-equity investment arm of the Dubai Government. However, DIC represents just one of a number of financial vehicles available to Sheikh Mohammed and it is highly likely that an alternative one of those will end up leading the bid to take control at Anfield. DIC had been leading the negotiations over a proposed takeover of Liverpool - through intermediary Amanda Staveley, of London based PCP Capital Partners - for the last couple of years. However, the financial situation surrounding the club has changed dramatically since DIC's initial £220 Million bid 24 months ago, and the current climate is now less favourable for such a private equity fund to become involved. To begin with, a new bid would have to cover the £350 million debt and Gillett and Hicks will also walk away with a profit of £75 million each from the sale. Add to those figures the costs of building a new stadium under the 'current global financial climate,' as Hicks put it last week, and it becomes clear that something close to a billion pound investment will be required to fulfill the club's ambitions. For an equity fund, like DIC, that would need to see a return on it's investment within 8- 10 years, rather than generationally, that kind of massive investment may be prohibitive. However, while the talks have been low key, 'they have been ongoing' with Dubai - as Staveley told an Arab magazine a couple of weeks ago - and both the Dubai ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, and his right-hand man, Mohammed Al Gergawi, have been personally involved in negotiations. Nothing has been agreed yet, and Gillett and Hicks are still resisting the sale of the club to Sheikh Mohammed, leaving it until as late in the day as possible - after all, that is their game as high level debt poker players. However, the pressure is mounting on them to sell as the credit crunch continues to undermine their ambitions for the club: it was only last week that they blamed the global financial climate for the postponement of building work on the new stadium at Stanley Park. The pair are now aware that they simply do not have the resources to deliver upon their lofty ambitions for the club that they promised when they took control in 2007. They are also likely to come under pressure to sell from the Royal Bank of Scotland and Wachovia, the banks with whom they secured a £350 million refinancing deal a little more than seven months ago. That deal is due for renewal this coming January and neither bank is certain to grant them the option of a six month extension: a situation that would force a sale as the banks would effectively become the club's owners and they would be looking to quickly sell the club to the highest bidder. It is easy to understand the banks position in all of this. After all, with the club owing annual interest payments of £30 million, Liverpool's financial security, under Gillett and Hicks, is almost entirely dependent upon future Champions League qualification. The Abu Dhabi takeover at Manchester City, and the increased competition for places in Europe's elite club competition that it will surely bring, makes Liverpool's future dependence upon Champions League revenue look even more precarious than it already was. The irony is, that as the Americans at Liverpool appear increasingly more helpless in the face of the massive injection of Arab wealth at Manchester City, the new owner at Eastlands, Sheikh Mansour, is married to the daughter of Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai. Those family ties, however, are purely anecdotal and the fact is that the two Arab states are in competition with each other as rivals for status and international prestige. There is no collusion, and the Premier League could provide a platform for the two Arab states to go head to head on the world stage. Nevertheless, the Abu Dhabi takeover at City could certainly help pave the way for a similar takeover at Liverpool from Dubai. The RSB and Wachovia have not yet put pressure on the Texan pair to sell, but they are aware of the bid from Sheikh Mohammed and if they fear that the Americans are unable to fulfill their pledges under the current financial climate - and with Arab wealth in Manchester jeopardising Liverpool's place at the top table of European football - it may only be a matter of time before the banks have no other option but to force Gillett and Hicks to relinquish control at Anfield. http://www.guillembalague.com/blog_desp.php?id=69
I can see G&H eventually having to sell but not until the banks put a gun to their heads. To be honest the best thing that could happen to us now is not get out of the group stages of the CL cutting off our revenue which would mean come January with no money in the kitty to pay off the interest the backs can force the sale and unlike G&H will only be concerned with covering their outlay being accutely aware of the 'crunch' allowing DIC or whoever from that neck of the woods to get the club at a more realistic price. If that happens the sale could be forced through before the season ends allowing the new owners to give Rafa the money he wants to prevent him walking. The yanks have no money for the stadium despite £45m of the loan they got was meant to start the work (where did that money go?) they have no money at all for players as shown this summer so its only a matter of time, its just a case of hoping Rafa will still be there when the dust settles.
I agree with the sentiments of the 1st post. With Abu Dhabi buying Man City and already investing and capturing Robinho and showing some intent, and with their friendly competition with Dubai, it is likely that Dubai will be more eager to buy a premier league club. They want Liverpool but IF Liverpool's owners (G&H) foolishly play hardball, they may buy another club. The global credit crunch situation will have a bearing on any deal. Dubai dont need credit as they are awash with petrodollars and are busy finding things to spend money on or invest in. Lets hope its Liverpool. G&H will find it hard to re-finance or roll-over their loan once Jan/Feb 09 comes around. Wachovia, one of the lending banks is having trouble themselves. Dubai made a mistake by not buying Liverpool when they had the chance. Moores in my opinion was culpable for allowing G&H to buy LFC on a loan. He didnt do enough nor proper due diligence. He didnt vet them enough. Now we are left with the quagmire of 30 million leaving the club per annum. That is bleeding us and holding us back, no doubt about it. I expect to hear a lot more about Dubai and selling negotiations in the run-up to the loan facility closure date. I have no doubt that G&H will be involved in brinkmanship. And I'm hoping that Dubai do come in. They will have the funds to build a new stadium and wont out any debt on the club (or at least not paying interest). As for Man City's chances of displacing us or someone else for a CL berth, we will only know that as the season plays out and as they purchase more players in Jan and next summer. It is just an unknown at the moment how much the new owners are willing to put in. If they do an Abramovitch, money at such levels can buy success. Then it would be between us and Arsenal for that 4th place battle perhaps. Only time will tell ..... Redspider
Just saw this on SSN: http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,11095_4430603,00.html Gillett tight-lipped over sale Liverpool co-owner George Gillett has refused to comment on rumours that the Premier League leaders are up for sale. In a joint move with Tom Hicks, Gillett bought the Reds in February 2007 but the American duo have endured a turbulent time on Merseyside. Speculation has persistently suggested that the pair - who need to restructure their £350million loan with the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in January - are looking to sell, and conjecture has gathered pace in the wake of the credit crunch. RBS is currently under public ownership and will only restructure loans in extremely favourable conditions, suggesting Hicks and Gillett will struggle to renegotiate and could look to sell. But Gillett remains tight-lipped, saying: "The stories feed on themselves and some are made up. Difficult "With regard to what we're doing we would not have any comment on that - there has already been enough speculation on that." However, Gillett is confident Liverpool and all Premier League clubs are in a stable position, despite worldwide financial difficulties. "I don't know all of the facts. What I read is not in the newspapers because it is an unreliable source - what I am looking at are other financial filings which I think are more reliable," Gillett added. "There are certain sports which have felt the impact. It's a good time to be cautious but it's a bit early to write the obituary of professional sports." Gillett also admitted that plans for a new stadium have not been shelved permanently and revealed his relationship with Liverpool fans has improved. Upset "There are some of things which have happened which have upset the fans and got them mad at Tom and myself," Gillett told Toronto Sport's Radio. "At this point, based on the media that we are seeing and an awful lot of the fan communication, I think they are at a point now where they are allowing the boys to demonstrate their skill. "And also to allow (manager) Rafa Benitez - who is one of the great coaches - to do his thing and we just want to leave it that way and we will operate behind the scenes and let the club do the talking." On the stadium Gillett added: "We put it off on a temporary basis and we continued to invest substantial money every month in both engineering, architecture, planning, approving and zoning."
> and Gillett and Hicks will also walk away with a profit of £75 million each from the sale One thing that is certainly clear is that that doesnt have to happen. G&H have a 350 million pound debt on LFC. Some of that may be backed by G&H's other assets, as far as I recall, only 105m was on LFC Ltd'ss direct books. The loan would have been furnished based on realisable assets. So, it is possible that Wachovia/RBS will not extend the loan, will require it to be payable and will 'foreclose' on the deal and acquire some of G&H's assets. G&H could make a loss! None of the players (G&H, Banks) actually would want this loan to 'foreclose', so will be actively seeking a seller. Liverpool FC is still an income generator but 30m interest ps on a 350m loan will only hold the club back long-term, on a club that generates if I recall corectly something like 160m pa in revenue. Liverpool FC is in a precarious position financially wise and until it finds a more stable financial 'home' its should be a worry and a concern to all Liverpool fans. Redspider