From The TimesFebruary 19, 2008 Rafael Benitez knows his future down to maths, not historyMartin Samuel, Chief Football Correspondent The logic was impeccable. How many managers, Rafael BenÃtez wished to know, had won the Champions League? Not many. And how many had won it twice? Hardly any. And how many had reached two finals in three years? We get the point. Yet logic and Liverpool parted company long ago. The prospect of beating Internazionale, of Milan, was discussed quite enthusiastically yesterday when, on Saturday, Liverpool failed to win against Barnsley, of Barnsley. In the same breath it will be stated, very matter-of-factly, that BenÃtez has to win the Champions League to keep his job as if to fall short of a third final in four years was an unacceptable level of underachievement. For the record, since Bob Paisley in 1981, there are four managers who have coached two teams to the club championship of Europe: Arrigo Sacchi (AC Milan, 1989 and 1990), Ottmar Hitzfeld (Borussia Dortmund, 1997, and Bayern Munich, 2001), Vicente Del Bosque (Real Madrid, 2000 and 2002) and Carlo Ancelotti (AC Milan, 2003 and 2007). Those miserable failures still stuck on a single European Cup victory include Fabio Capello, Marcello Lippi, Giovanni Trapattoni and Sir Alex Ferguson. The mounting pressure on BenÃtez is something over which he has little control, provoked as it is by the finances of the modern elite football club. The demands will always be high at Liverpool and an outcry is to be expected when a home FA Cup tie against weak opposition ends in defeat, yet it is a new phenomenon that the same quartet of teams are expected to form the top four, year after year. Even the great Paisley came fifth in the 1980-81 season. Were that to happen to BenÃtez this season, and were this Champions League campaign to end at the last-16 stage against the champions of Italy, it would without doubt cost him his job. Not because there are many managers out there better equipped to succeed him, but because the financial consequences for the club would be catastrophic and somebody would have to carry the can. There is more riding on this evening’s game than one lousy season. Those who analyse balance sheets suggest that if Liverpool do not qualify for next season’s Champions League, Tom Hicks and George Gillett Jr, the club owners, will not be able to service the overdraft on the most recent refinancing agreement. They will then have two choices: to make up the shortfall personally, having underwritten the loans, or to raise the money by curtailing incoming transfers or, worse, selling players. Not those the fans would like to get rid of, either. Dirk Kuyt is unlikely to cover a £15 million hole in the accounts; Fernando Torres is. Sources involved in the continuing takeover by Dubai International Capital believe that the yearly interest on loans taken out is about £28 million, which is covered by projected profits from the football club of £30 million, with roughly half provided by entry to the Champions League. Money from European football is almost pure profit, beyond travelling expenses, but even so Liverpool’s margins are tight. To satisfy its shareholders, a standard plc would expect to bring in three times its interest repayments to feel comfortable. Since going private after the Glazer buyout, however, David Gill, the chief executive of Manchester United, says he is happy with a ratio of 1½ times the repayment. Liverpool’s situation is more extreme, with some analysts having the club operating at only slightly better than 1:1. If this was the case, the moment Liverpool’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League ended, the lenders would know that the club could not cover their annual interest charges without secondary action. A huge amount, therefore, hangs on the next two months under BenÃtez. He has a good team, but not a great team if they are without Torres or Steven Gerrard and still very much a work in progress. Certain young players will improve with age, but the limitations of others are being exposed by the present predicament and BenÃtez will need to enter the transfer market again in the summer. Hicks and Gillett insist that £45 million of the £350 million refinancing agreement is earmarked for player improvement but priorities must change if there is any possibility of default on a loan. BenÃtez, as an intelligent man, will appreciate the viciousness of this circle. He needs the best players to qualify for the Champions League, but if he does not qualify he will not get the funds to buy the best players. “I am not thinking about the money,†he said. “The squad is much better than last year, we have a lot of young players that are going forward, but other areas need to improve. When you have bad moments you see the character of everyone and I see our future in the way people respond. I remember when Arsenal won, maybe, one cup in a few years, but had players coming through. We are in that position now.†If that sounds strange coming from a manager whose team have been in two European finals in three years, he was perhaps talking about the altogether more demanding slog of a Premier League season. The Champions League is what BenÃtez does best, however, and Inter Milan will not be fooled by recent aberrations. The pressure is on Liverpool, particularly if the figures, like so much about BenÃtez’s regime, no longer add up.